Page 23 - Provincial Treasury Estimates.pdf

Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure (EPRE) -2023/24 Financial Year
governments. Fixed investment by the private sector is expected to continue on its slow recovery path in 2023 on
account of a challenging global and domestic business operating conditions which have been worsened by electricity
supply constraints.

The export surge of 2022 was mainly underpinned by the higher prices for commodity prices, particularly for coal that

was destined for Europe. There were also significant increases in exports for horticultural products, paper products,
machinery and electrical equipment as well as for other manufacturing exports. Moving forward weaker external
demand, weakening commodity prices, recurrent electricity shortages and logistics inefficiencies will limit growth in
export volume particularly in mining and manufacturing for the near term.

Provincial Economic Indicators

Economic Growth

For the provincial economy growth remains closely tied to that of the national economy. For 2022 based on EC
Provincial Treasury projections the EC economy is estimated to have expanded by 1.7 per cent in 2022. For 2023
and 2024, provincial economic growth is projected to slow down to 0.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively. At such
subdued growth levels the developmental outcomes espoused by the National Development Plan (NDP) and Provincial
Development Plan (PDP) for 2030 will remain largely unrealized, particularly in terms of jobs creation, sustained
poverty alleviation and reductions in income inequalities.

Despite the subdued short-term economic outlook, sectors such as provincial agriculture, manufacturing, construction,
transport and finance & business services are expected to rebound and sustain some positive growth momentum
moving forward.

Table 1.2 Eastern Cape Industry/Sector Growth (%)

2021 2022
Industry / Sector
Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3
Agriculture 6.8 -3.0 -11.7 18.4
Manufacturing 6.0 4.9 -5.9 1.3
Construction -2.4 -0.8 -2.0 3.1
Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants 4.2 2.7 -1.4 0.9
Transport and communication 3.8 1.8 2.4 3.8
Finance, real estate and business services 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.1
Community, social and other personal services 5.0 0.9 0.2 -1.0
General government services 0.7 1.4 -1.6 0.2
GDPR at market prices 3.6 1.8 -0.5 1.3
Source: Stats SA and Quantec 2023

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