Page 21 - Provincial Treasury Estimates.pdf

Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure (EPRE) -2023/24 Financial Year
Further prolonging of the war between Russia and Ukraine will further negatively affect global energy and food supplies
leading to higher prices. Pressures on food prices are likely to lead to food insecurities for poor households

especially in developing and low-income economies that have limited budgetary buffers to cushion households and
businesses from rising prices.

Overall the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global growth to decline from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022
to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. The down-side risks are expected to remain for the
near-term, implying the need for stronger policies to boost domestic aggregate demand to sustain economic recovery
efforts.

Table 1.1 Global Economic Growth Projections

Region/country 2021 2022 2023 2024
Percentage Actual Estimate Forecast
World 6.2 3.4 2.9 3.1
Advanced economies 5.4 2.7 1.2 1.4
United States 5.9 2 1.4 1
Euro area 5.3 3.5 0.7 1.6
United Kingdom 7.6 4.1 -0.6 0.9
Japan 2.1 1.4 1.8 0.9
Emerging and developing countries 6.7 3.9 4 4.2
Brazil 5 3.1 1.2 1.5
Russia 4.7 -2.2 0.3 2.1
India 8.7 6.8 6.1 6.8
China 8.4 3 5.2 4.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 3.8 3.8 4.1
Nigeria 3.6 3.0 3.2 2.9
South Africa 1 4.9 2.0 0.9 1.5
World trade volumes 10.4 5.4 2.4 3.4
1. National Treasury forecast
Source: Natonal Treasury, IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2023

National Economic Growth Outlook

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has reported real economic growth for the country at 2 per cent for 2022 which is
marginally lower than the initial estimate of 2.5% published by National Treasury during the tabling of the 2023 National
Budget. The growth for 2022 was mainly concentrated in the third quarter of 2022 when agriculture, transport and
manufacturing posted strong performances, while net exports growth and inventory build-ups were significant on the
demand side. However, by end of quarter 4 of 2022 the growth momentum had largely dissipated due the impact of
sustained electricity load shedding. In quarter 4 of 2022, real GDP declined at the rate of -1.3 per cent, quarter on

quarter and seasonally adjusted. In terms of the broader economic recovery from Covid-19 the size of quarterly real
domestic output in quarter 4 of 2022, was estimated at R1.152 trillion, which is marginally higher than pre-pandemic
highs of R1.146 trillion last recorded in quarter 4 of 2018.

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